NFL Analyst Picks: Week 9

By Jonathan Lee and Bart Lopez

JON’S EXPERT PICKS

San Francisco 49ers -3.5 at Washington Redskins
I don’t buy into the theory of West coast teams flying East and playing poorly especially with a team as well prepared as Jim Harbaugh’s.  Washington has completely fallen apart losing its last three games and getting shut out last week.  The Redskins can’t settle on a running back due to ineffectiveness and injury.  I see the running game as the biggest factor in this game with San Francisco able to churn out yards and time of possession with Frank Gore, and the defense able to shut down opposing attacks.  Washington is a middle run defense combined with a very poor run offense.  Handing the ball to John Beck to win the game through the air is not a winning formula.  San Francisco is projected to win nearly 65 percent of the time, and by 10 or more nearly 38 percent of the time.

Green Bay Packers -5.5 at San Diego Chargers
The Chargers really are not a good team right now with running back Ryan Mathews banged up and quarterback Philip Rivers having his worst season as a starter.  The Chargers really have no shot against the Packers or any other team if Rivers continues to turn the ball over at his current rate.  He’s already thrown 11 interceptions after having thrown just 13 all year in 2010.  His five fumbles are one shy of a career high.  I think this line should actually be Green Bay -7 or -7.5, and that is precisely where the computer sim line is projected.  AccuScore has a 6-1 record in Packer games, and 2-4 with the Chargers because of their overrated nature earlier in the year.  A couple Charger turnovers will spell doom against Aaron Rodgers.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at Tennessee Titans
The third road team I’m taking this week is a dog this time.  The Bengals are playing very good football right now behind rookie Andy Dalton and a very good defense.  The Titans are 3-1 at home, but the only impressive win was against Baltimore in Week 2.  The other two were against Denver and Indy, and Baltimore has proven to be an extremely poor road team.  Basically this line projects two equal teams with the difference being homefield.  The Bengals have the second best run defense in the NFL, and Chris Johnson has been a huge dud with the Titans averaging just 69 rush yards per game.  I say Cincinnati is the better team overall so I’ll take the points.

Sign-up for ALL-ACCESS membership today to get all of AccuScore's picks for the rest of the NFL season!

BART’S EXPERT PICKS

Buffalo Bills (-1) vs. New York Jets
My first pick of the week is Buffalo to cover the spread at home against New York. With the spread being so small this game all comes down to home field advantage. At home the Bills are a much better team with three big wins against the Raiders, Patriots, and Eagles. Their only two losses have come on the road at Cincinnati and New York. The Jets are 0-3 on the road this year with convincing losses to the Raiders, Ravens, and Patriots. Granted those are all playoff contenders, but they are a very different team away from the Meadowlands.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans UNDER 41.5 Points
My second pick (less than 41.5 points) is an AccuScore hot trend and has an AccuScore probability of 62.5 percent. Neither of these teams scores a lot of points. Tennessee and Cincinnati average 19.9 and 24.4 points per game respectively. While the combined average is over the line in this game (by just 2.8 points) the combination of the Cincinnati defense and the Titans home field advantage should keep the score under 41.5 points. The Bengals give up just 17.6 point per game, ranked fourth in the league. On the other sideline, the Titans have held three teams to under 20 points when playing at home. I don’t see the game getting over 38 points.

Green Bay Packers at San Diego Chargers OVER 50.5 Points
My final pick of the week is for the combined final score to be over 50.5 points. This is a three star pick, AccuScore hot trend, and has an AccuScore probability of 60.1 percent. I didn’t hesitate with this one because a pick that involves the Packers scoring a lot of points makes a lot of sense. Green Bay averages 32.9 points per game led by the best quarterback in football, Aaron Rodgers. The Chargers have a decent defense, ranked fourth in opponent passing yards, but have faced one superstar quarterback in Tom Brady. Brady and the Patriots racked up 35 points in the win over the Chargers. The Packers don’t have a great defense, but are content winning the game with the best offense in football. I expect this game to be a shootout.

Follow Jon on Twitter @thejonlee
Follow Bart on Twitter @bartlopez1216
Stay up to date with AccuScore on Twitter as well @AccuScore
Go to the NFL page for game forecasts and previews for every game of the NFL season