January 03, 2012 1:09 PM UTC

Michigan vs Virginia Tech 1/3/2012

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Michigan winning 48% of simulations, and Virginia Tech 52% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Michigan commits fewer turnovers in 34% of simulations and they go on to win 61% when they take care of the ball. Virginia Tech wins 62% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Denard Robinson is averaging 82 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (36% chance) then he helps his team win 61%. David Wilson is averaging 152 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (39% chance) then he helps his team win 65%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is VTECH +2.5 --- Over/Under line is 51

'CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 3 weeks of the season.

MichiganATS RECORDVirginia TechATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games8-4-0All Games3-9-0Michigan
Road & Neutral Field2-2-0Road & Neutral Field3-4-0Michigan
When Favored6-3-0When Underdog0-0-0No Edge
Non-Conference Opp3-1-0Non-Conference Opp0-3-0Michigan
Opp .500+ Record4-4-0Opp .500+ Record3-5-0Michigan

LAST SEASON: We advise factoring for these trends for the first 3 to 6 weeks of the 2010 Season.

MichiganATS RECORDVirginia TechATS RECORDATS EDGE
All Games3-9-0All Games10-3-0Virginia Tech
Road & Neutral Field1-5-0Road & Neutral Field5-1-0Virginia Tech
When Favored2-5-0When Underdog0-1-0Michigan
Non-Conference Opp3-1-0Non-Conference Opp2-2-0Michigan
Opp .500+ Record1-8-0Opp .500+ Record6-2-0Virginia Tech

OVER-UNDER TRENDS

MichiganO-U-P RECORDVirginia TechO-U-P RECORDO-U EDGE
All Totals (O-U-P)5-7-0All Totals (O-U-P)4-8-0UNDER
On Road1-3-0At Home2-3-0UNDER
All Totals 20107-5-0All Totals 20106-7-0OVER
On Road 20103-3-0At Home 20104-3-0OVER

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